Predicting the Future of China Adoption

With ALL the RUMOURS that are going around right now about adopting from China, I thought I would post this that I read today(thanks Dawn for the heads-up). This was written by and taken off Brian Stuy's blog. Brian has 3 adopted daughters from China and writes interesting research articles....he can also do research on your adopted daughter such as Finding Ads in the newspapers.

A cursory view of nearly every adoption blog and newsgroup shows that the air is abuzz with speculation and rumors of what the future holds for China adoption. Although there is significant data and history on which accurate assessments can be based, it seems that nearly everyone is at a loss to explain why things are changing so dramatically.

As adoptive families, it is helpful to assess the current situation with tools learned in basic Economics 101. It is clear that China's international adoption program is experiencing a supply "crunch", which is to say that there are too few children available for immediate adoption to waiting foreign families. The immediate cause of this crunch was the Hunan stoppage that began in December 2005, and is just now ending. But a longer view shows that it has been building for years.

It is a misperception to think that this situation appeared overnight. In fact, a glance at the Yahoogroups dedicated to the various orphanages shows that each year orphanages have been added to the International Adoption program to bring in additional supply of children. This was done to compensate for the falling abandonment rates in the existing member orphanages. The goal is to keep the supply as constant and predictable as possible, and it has worked pretty well.

It is well-known that three Provinces provide a majority of the children adopted through the IA program -- Guangdong, Jiangxi and Hunan. When Hunan adoptions were paused in late December 2005, it took 20-25% of the adoptable children out of the supply pool. China's options were limited, especially since this was a very temporary problem. It was forced to let the "demand" back up, leading to longer and longer referral wait times. The DTC to referral wait times now stand at approximately 14 months.

With Hunan Province now coming back on line (we should see substantial Hunan referrals in the next month or so), the supply-demand equation should normalize. But China still faces a demand imbalance. Hunan doesn't totally explain the longer DTC referral wait times, just a portion of it. Thus, China is taking further actions to bring things into line.

It seems likely at this point that one step China will make in the near-term is the dramatic reduction, if not outright elimination, of the singles program. China has had ambivalent attitudes towards this program for years, and has taken periodic steps to reduce the number of singles that could adopt. This ambivalence stems from the cultural belief that children should be raised by two-parent families, coupled with the desire that China's children not be raised by homosexuals. Letters of Declarations (required by single applicants declaring their heterosexuality) aside, it is widely believed that gay parents continue to apply for adoption. Thus, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the first step to reducing the number of families permitted to adopt would be the elimination of the singles program (A compromise solution to outright elimination of these families would be the requirement that they apply for a waiting child).

Additional restrictions seem likely, perhaps health restrictions, income requirements, lowering upper-age limits for parents, and other means of reducing the number of families eligible to adopt. Additionally, new orphanages will probably be brought into the IA program. These changes are intended to bring the supply-demand equation back into balance.

But the referral wait time will not be brought back below 12 months, the stated goal of the CCAA, because simply put the longer wait times work to China's favor. As wait times increase, more families look to alternative options, and one option that will be presented in ever more favorable light is the waiting children program. Expedited referrals will be used to improve the attractiveness of this program, and many families will opt to adopt a Special Needs child, thereby reducing the demand for the healthy young children that are becoming increasingly more difficult for China to supply.

If viewed through the prism of simple supply-demand models, the events of the last 12 months become understandable. Often as waiting families we focus on each months referals, feverishly projecting the past to try and ascertain the future (one website has projected the wait time for a family submitting their paperwork today at 2 1/2 years!). By stepping back, we can see the larger picture, and see how the steps being taken by China will impact how adoptions are done. With most of China's orphanages now in modern, third-generation facilities, the "need" for monies derived from the IA program is diminishing. It still exists, and for that reason the IA program will continue. But we must realize that it is China's right, and perogative, to alter the program as they see fit to insure the life-long well-being of her children.

Baby coming!!!!

Isnt this the coolest picture?? I came across this picture lastweek and then I seen it again on Dawn's blog today.....Dawn begged for the news so.......

"I'm gonna be a Auntie again"

YUP, you heard right. My brother and Shannon are having another baby!! I never thought that they would have anymore....I was shcoked when I heard!! Hunter is getting a baby sister or brother and the due date is on Hunter's birthday!!!

Shannon asked Hunter the other day if he wanted a "baby" and his response was "No, please no baby mom"......he will be one jelouse little boy I bet!!

FInally.....LID!!!

YIPPEE! I received a phone call today at 3:25pm from Lyla at DCRE advising me that my Log In Date (LID) with the China Center of Adoption Affairs (CCAA) is: AUGUST 9, 2006!!
Now....it is kind of depressing since it took 26 days after DTC which seems so long! I guess this is what happens when your dossier is sent to China right when the CCAA is moving offices! It makes me wonder if my dossier was MIA (missing in action) for a bit!! But I wont argue!!! I'm now "in line" and waiting to be matched with my Little Chinese Dream....Channing!!

"Do not be affraid, for I am with you: I will bring your children from the East and gather you from the West." Isaiah 43:5

Channing's Baby/Life Book

Channing's baby/life book finally arrived today!! I had ordered it online from the USA, from a lady who also has adopted a baby from China. Trying to find a baby book for a child who was adopted is hard, and extra hard for a single mom. I stumbled across this website a few months back and the baby/life book is PERFECT. Christi does an AMAZING job on these books. They are focused on China Adoption and you can customize the book to pretty much the exact way you want it. You also get to pick your fabric for the book, you can have the babies name put on the cover, you can have the pages in color or black & white, you can have the pages customized for a single mom, and it will also refer to Canada or the USA. I'm soo excited to have it!! I also ordered a picture mat which has the Chinese characters for "I LOVE YOU".....

Here are the first 2 pages of the book. I got the colored pages as well as the single mom version!!! Click on the picture to see the wrtiing better....

UPDATE: I added the link to the Christi's website.....ENJOY!!!

9 Days Old

Today was Haley's 1st trip to the mall. Usually every Monday Lori and I go out for lunch to the mall. Oh what fun it really is now!! Before Lori & I would be BABY shopping with no baby, not no more...Haley is here!! It really will be a chore when Channing arrives, 2 car seats, 2 strollers, 2 diaper bags....either Lori or I will need to get a mini van to haul everything around.
Haley is so alert, its amazing. She was awake for most of our lunch and then off to sleep. Once in awhile we would here a little peep out of her...so cute!!
P.S- I heard that the family is checking in to see pictures of Haley. If you are, please comment and then I know your looking & I will keep posting. Also I know Mommy Lori is following the blog too & you can leave comments for her to read!!! Hope your enjoying seeing little munckin!!!

Hard day at the lake

Here is my nephew Hunter!! While us "big kids" were having happy hour with our neighbours that were over, Hunter wanted to go inside to watch Little Einsteins. So I took him in, turned the TV on, and I went back outside. 10 minutes later this is how we found him!! I guess it was a hard day at the lake!!! What a cutie!!!

Finally after about an hour snooze, it was time to wake up. Here is my little buddy hanging out, waiting for supper.

LAST CALL!!!!!

I’m putting out my last request for quilt squares for Channing’s 100 Good Wishes Quilt. You know who you are!! If you want to I would still love to have you participate. Pick any type of fabric that you like. Don't let the wish be a delay for you. You can send any wish on any type of paper as simple or as fancy as you want. I have received all kinds of wonderful wishes in all forms and Channing and I will cherish each one! Bottom line is I will love whatever you send just please send it........... I would really like to thank everybody that has sent us a square!!! The enthusiasm I have been met with while working on this project has been awesome. I promise to post photo’s as soon as the quilt is started and of course of the finished product as soon as It is done. Thanks Again

Right now I'm at 79 squares..............

Only need 21 more to go!!!!

P.S- Also I'm waiting for those wishes that are coming!! I need to make sure we know who the square is from, so please send them!!

Building a "Dossier"

I thought I would share with you how much paper it takes to build a dossier. This is all the letters & stuff I had to do just for my dossier. This doesnt include my application & paperwork with DCRE. Once my dossier left my hands it all had to go to my agency for notarization-authentication and translation.
Now I'm working on the Immigration & Sponsorship application which is of course lots more paperwork!!! I think I will have it ready to send on Sept 1st (makes the finacial part easier if it is at the beginning of the month).

1 Month DTC!!!

WOW....Its so hard to believe that today is 1 month since DTC!! I sure hope that the next few months will fly by just as fast. I still havent heard of my LID, but I'm guessing it was between July 26 & August 1st.

Other than celebrating my 1 month, there is no other exciting China news to report. My agency just got back from China and I'm eagerly waiting to hear if they have any "news" to report. I'm thinking of contacting them this week......the wait can drive a person crazy!!

HALEY

Well she finally arrived!!! My cousin Lori finally had her baby after being 11 days overdue. Haley Lynn was born Saturday at 8:21am and weighed 7lbs 11.5 oz....

Here is mom & baby!!!!

She is soooo perfect!! To me she looks like she is about 2 weeks old already. Tonight at the hospital she was WIDE awake for us for at least 1 hour. Plus Auntie Kim got the pleasure of changing 3 diapers (2 dirty) and cleaned up 1 spit-up mess!! But ohhh she is too darn cute, it was all worth it!! I think her nickname from me will be "MUNCHKIN" ......Welcome to the world little Haley!!!!

July DTC Group

One of the popular things to do when your adopting from China is to join a DTC group once your dossier has been sent to China. So me being me, joined the July 2006 DTC Yahoo Group. It is so nice to chat with others who are on the same timeline as I am. The group consists of 175 families so far from all over Canada, USA, Denmark and Australia.
The Group started off by having a group naming contest as well as a group logo contest. This is what the group voted on: July Fireflies. I love the logo (designed by Robyn) and the name!!
To help with the long wait the group does a lot of fun things to help time pass by. There are Cybershows, a Monthly Secret Pal Gift Exchange, a 100 Good Wishes Quilt Swap, and a Post Card Swap. You dont have to participate in everything if you choose not to, I have signed up for a the Monthly Secret Pal Gift Exchange and the Quilt Swap so far. The group also has our own blog and website for all the families. Another cool idea is you can purchase apparel on Cafe Press with our name & logo on it and all proceeds go to Half the Sky Foundation. I still have to decide what to order!!

Robeez

I wanted to post this message in order to let other families know that Robeez is really great for donating slippers to bring to orphanages around the world.... For those who don't know Robeez are soft leather sole slippers for little children that are recommended by Chiropractors because it is just like walking bare feet. They are also very cute and great when you have hardwood floors to help the children from slipping around when they start walking.

Anyways I had contacted the company (thanks to another adoptive mom that gave me this same information) and they have sent me (donated) a lot of slippers...The only thing the lady told me on the phone was that I had to pay for the shipping to have them sent to my house. She told me that it would be approx $10-15.00. Soo when the package arrived today, the delivery man told me that I didnt have to pay anything. I have attached a pictures of all 25 pairs of them below.

I just went on the Robeez website and clicked on the "donation" button and wrote a quick note to them. A few days later a lady called me and said they would be thrilled to donate some slippers and also said she would love a picture of the Orphanage Director receiving the slippers if possible. What a wonderful Company to do this!!!

1st set of WHEELS

Every girl needs a set of wheels!!! Well here are Channing's first ones!!! I've been keeping my eye on this stroller and finally last Saturday when I was on my way to the lake, my mom called and told me that Sears was having their "Scratch & Save" days. So I figured I better break down and buy it now!! Well I got up there and sure enough it was also $40.00 off. (My luck isnt that good)... When I got up to the register the lady said "Nope the stroller isnt part of the Scratch & Save"......see no LUCK!! But I decided to take it anyways as I LOVE IT...it has an Asian look to it and is chocolate brown and a cream color!!!!!!!


So once I got to the lake no one was home. Our 2 neighbours Diane & Cher came over to have a "happy hour" with me. We then decided to try/attempt to put the stroller together. I thought fursure we would need a screw driver, but it was easy as 1-2-3....Once we finished the ladies said this was the "Cadillac" stroller. Thanks Diane (Turtle) and Cher for your help!!!

SURPRISE...Happy Anniversary!!!

Saturday I got to attend a 25th Wedding Anniversary for my very dear friends (Adopted Aunt & Uncle!!) Jeff & Leissa. The party was out at the lake in the Club House so NO driving home was necessary at 2:30am!! The party was a TOTAL surprise for Leissa....planned & organized by Jeff and the kids.....so sweet!! There must've been 100 people there and from all over Sask & Alberta. Jeff & Leissa are such a perfect, happy couple & I cant wait for the 50th anniversary!!


Here is a picture of Jeff & Leissa with the kids. On the left is Amanda (who is Dale's girlfriend), then Dale (youngest son), and Kyle is on the far right (oldest son). They are such an AMAZING family. Arent they a good look'in bunch??

Thanks for letting us share your special day with you!! Jeff I LOVED the slideshow and Kyle what a beautiful song you sang. CONGRATS Jeff & Leissa.....Love you both......HUGS!!!

Happy Birthday Saige

Happy Birthday

Oh its so hard to believe my girl is 6 years old already!!! We celebrated her birthday at her 2 favourite places. After work we headed out to the lake for the evening and then on the way home we stopped at the Dairy Queen drive-thru for her incream in a dish!!!